IPO GMP Accuracy Study: We Tested GMP vs Listing Gains Across 36 IPOs

We tested the two most-watched pre-listing signals — grey market premium (GMP) and subscription numbers — against actual listing outcomes for 36 major Indian IPOs from 2021 to 2025, plus every mainboard and SME listing we tracked live in July 2026. The short version: QIB subscription is the stronger predictor of listing direction, and GMP is a useful but imprecise magnitude signal. All 13 IPOs in our sample with QIB subscription above 150x listed positive (average gain +80%), while IPOs with QIB below 5x averaged a -4.6% listing.

How accurate was GMP in the most recent listings?

In the July 2026 cycle, final pre-listing GMP called the listing direction correctly in all four IPOs we tracked end-to-end, but the size of the move was often wrong — GMP underestimated two strong debuts and overestimated one weak one. Direction: reliable. Exact price: not.

The Happy Steels case is the most instructive: it was subscribed 77.8x on the final day, yet the grey market never quoted more than a thin premium — and the stock listed at just +3%. When GMP and subscription disagree on an SME issue, the grey market's caution is often the better read, because last-day NII subscription surges can be financed hype rather than conviction.

Does subscription predict listing gains?

Yes — QIB subscription in particular. Across 36 major IPOs from 2021-2025 in our historical IPO database, the relationship between institutional demand and listing outcome is strong and monotonic (correlation of ~0.70 between log QIB subscription and listing gain):

Every IPO in the sample that listed at a loss had weak institutional demand: Paytm (QIB 2.79x, -27.3%), LIC (2.83x, -8.1%), Dr Agarwal's (0.39x, -23.4%), Hexaware (6.9x, -7.1%), Hyundai (6.97x, -1.3%). The two IPOs where retail subscription exceeded QIB subscription averaged a -7.8% listing — retail-led demand without institutional backing is the single clearest warning sign in the dataset.

When does GMP get it wrong?

GMP fails in three recurring situations. First, flat listings despite strong books — Adani Wilmar (QIB 47x) and Campus Activewear (QIB 101x) both listed flat-to-negative when broader markets wobbled between close and listing. Second, SME issues, where a handful of grey-market operators can quote premiums with almost no real trades behind them. Third, late collapses: a GMP that falls sharply in the final 48 hours (as with Sotefin Bharat's slide from ₹22 to ₹7 in July 2026) usually matters more than its absolute level.

How should you combine GMP and subscription?

Use GMP for direction and timing, QIB subscription for conviction. The strongest historical setup is a stable or rising GMP above ~20% of issue price plus QIB subscription above 50x — in our sample that combination almost never listed below issue price. The weakest setup is high retail excitement with QIB under 5x, which averaged a negative listing. Check today's numbers side by side on the live GMP tracker before drawing conclusions on any single signal.

Methodology and caveats

Sample: 36 mainboard IPOs (2021-2025) from the stoicHQ historical database — mega and large issues from Zomato through IndiQube Spaces — plus the July 2026 cohort tracked live. Subscription figures and listing prices are public exchange record. July 2026 final GMPs are the last pre-listing quotes from public grey-market trackers, cross-checked across at least two sources. GMP is unofficial and unregulated; quotes vary by dealer and region. This sample skews toward large, well-covered IPOs — accuracy for small SME issues is materially worse than these numbers suggest. This is an educational analysis, not investment advice.